{"id":171439,"date":"2020-04-11T21:05:51","date_gmt":"2020-04-11T20:05:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/?p=171439"},"modified":"2020-04-11T21:05:51","modified_gmt":"2020-04-11T20:05:51","slug":"coronavirus-comment-la-chine-anticipe-la-deuxieme-vague","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/coronavirus-comment-la-chine-anticipe-la-deuxieme-vague\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus : comment la Chine anticipe la deuxi\u00e8me vague ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>La Chine a connu des interventions sanitaires fortes pour prot\u00e9ger sa population. Des chercheurs ont publi\u00e9, dans le journal The Lancet, une \u00e9valuation de la transmission et de la s\u00e9v\u00e9rit\u00e9 du Covid-19 durant la premi\u00e8re vague et informent sur les param\u00e8tres \u00e0 surveiller pour anticiper une probable seconde vague.<\/div>\n<div>Whuan vient de sortir du confinement alors que la premi\u00e8re vague de l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie a fait des milliers de morts. En abandonnant sporadiquement cette mesure, n\u00e9cessaire pour l&rsquo;\u00e9conomie et la sant\u00e9 mentale du pays, la Chine s&rsquo;expose a une seconde vague \u00e9pid\u00e9mique. D&rsquo;une part, via des cas import\u00e9s maintenant que l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie est mondiale, d&rsquo;autre part, par des cas asymptomatiques toujours contagieux sur lesquels on poss\u00e8de encore peu d&rsquo;informations. Comment la Chine va-t-elle devoir se pr\u00e9parer et que pouvons-nous apprendre de leur situation ? Un article publi\u00e9 dans la revue The Lancet r\u00e9sume la situation.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><strong>*Des mesures drastiques utiles<\/strong><\/div>\n<div>Les mesures utilis\u00e9es par la Chine lors de la premi\u00e8re vague d&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie \u00e0 SARS-CoV-2 qu&rsquo;elle a connue ont \u00e9t\u00e9 fort utiles pour limiter le nombre de morts. En effet, apr\u00e8s que la quarantaine drastique a \u00e9t\u00e9 mise en place et que son impact agisse, le taux de diss\u00e9mination du virus (Ro) a chut\u00e9 en dessous de 1 et les cas graves \u00e9taient 5 fois moins nombreux dans plusieurs provinces chinoises.<\/div>\n<div>Cependant, maintenant que l&rsquo;heure est au d\u00e9confinement et que la pand\u00e9mie est mondiale, la Chine va devoir faire attention \u00e0 une possible seconde vague \u00e9pid\u00e9mique. En effet, d&rsquo;autres cas pourront \u00eatre import\u00e9s et relancer l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que le confinement et l&rsquo;absence de vaccin ont emp\u00each\u00e9 l&rsquo;immunit\u00e9 de groupe de se faire. Les tests massifs doivent aussi se poursuivre pour d\u00e9tecter d&rsquo;autres cas potentiellement asymptomatiques. Cela donne une image de ce \u00e0 quoi va ressembler le d\u00e9confinement en France. Finalement, pour pr\u00e9parer cette seconde vague probable, la Chine va devoir, comme chaque pays \u00e0 l&rsquo;heure du d\u00e9confinement, surveiller de tr\u00e8s pr\u00e8s deux param\u00e8tres : le Ro et le taux de cas graves.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><strong>*Surveiller le R0 et les cas graves<\/strong><\/div>\n<div>Ce sont les deux indicateurs primordiaux \u00e0 bien surveiller afin de pouvoir reprendre des mesures drastiques si n\u00e9cessaire. Si le Ro d\u00e9passe \u00e0 nouveau 1, l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie va de nouveau se r\u00e9pandre et faire des ravages. Rappelons qu&rsquo;\u00e0 l&rsquo;\u00e9poque de la grippe espagnole, c&rsquo;est bien la deuxi\u00e8me vague qui avait fait le plus de mort. Aussi, le taux de cas graves est important : si l&rsquo;\u00e9pid\u00e9mie circule mais que les personnes vuln\u00e9rables restent confin\u00e9es (et ne sont donc pas touch\u00e9es) les h\u00f4pitaux seront moins submerg\u00e9s. C&rsquo;est une donn\u00e9e d\u00e9cisive \u00e0 prendre en compte afin d&rsquo;envisager les strat\u00e9gies contre une deuxi\u00e8me vague potentielle pour atteindre un \u00e9quilibre optimal entre la sant\u00e9 et la protection \u00e9conomique.<\/div>\n<div dir=\"ltr\" style=\"text-align: right\">(Futura)<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Chine a connu des interventions sanitaires fortes pour prot\u00e9ger sa population. Des chercheurs ont publi\u00e9, dans le journal The Lancet, une \u00e9valuation de la transmission et de la s\u00e9v\u00e9rit\u00e9&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":171441,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-171439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monde"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronavirus : comment la Chine anticipe la deuxi\u00e8me vague ? - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La Chine a connu des interventions sanitaires fortes pour prot\u00e9ger sa population. 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