{"id":21307,"date":"2014-11-20T11:37:33","date_gmt":"2014-11-20T10:37:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/?p=21307"},"modified":"2014-11-20T11:37:33","modified_gmt":"2014-11-20T10:37:33","slug":"quelle-participation-effective-du-corps-electoral-aux-legislatives","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/quelle-participation-effective-du-corps-electoral-aux-legislatives\/","title":{"rendered":"Quelle participation effective du corps \u00e9lectoral aux l\u00e9gislatives ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: right;\">\n\t<a href=\"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/wp-content\/uploads\/COUV.jpg\" data-rel=\"penci-gallery-image-content\" ><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"COUV\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-21308\" height=\"350\" src=\"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/wp-content\/uploads\/COUV.jpg\" width=\"620\" \/><\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">\n\t&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\tCommen&ccedil;ons par rappeler qu&rsquo;en 2011 le corps &eacute;lectoral &eacute;tait &laquo;flottant&raquo;, car &agrave; la suite de la mauvaise et tr&egrave;s &eacute;quivoque r&eacute;daction de l&rsquo;article&nbsp;6 du decret-loi relatif &agrave; l&rsquo;&eacute;lection de l&rsquo;ANC, nous &eacute;tions &agrave; ce sujet en pr&eacute;sence de deux chiffres.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\tEn effet, l&rsquo;inscription &eacute;tait passive, donc ne n&eacute;cessitant pas une intervention personnelle de l&rsquo;&eacute;lecteur, ce qui a entra&icirc;n&eacute; la d&eacute;termination de la liste &laquo;potentielle&raquo; des &eacute;lecteurs bas&eacute;e sur les mises &agrave; jour statistiques de l&rsquo;Institut national. Ce dernier estimait &agrave; cette &eacute;poque que le corps &eacute;lectoral potentiel qui &eacute;tait compos&eacute; de tous les Tunisiens &acirc;g&eacute;s au moins de 18 ans, fr&ocirc;lait les huit millions. Ainsi nos taux de participation sont par cons&eacute;quent erron&eacute;s et d&egrave;s le d&eacute;but.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\tCommen&ccedil;ons par analyser le taux de participation qui a une grande r&eacute;percussion sur les r&eacute;sultats et les pourcentages. L&rsquo;inscription ayant &eacute;t&eacute; passive en 2011,&nbsp; on pr&eacute;senta alors les pourcentages de participation au vu du nombre des &eacute;lecteurs potentiels, c&rsquo;est-&agrave;-dire 8.739.644 &eacute;lecteurs. Ainsi l&rsquo;inscription active donna lieu &agrave; un chiffre total de 4.463.746, soit un pourcentage th&eacute;orique d&rsquo;au moins 51,1&nbsp;%. Le nombre total des votants, comprenant aussi bien les inscrits volontaires que ceux passifs, totalise 4.306.367 donc un pourcentage de 49,2&nbsp;%.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\tL&rsquo;op&eacute;ration d&rsquo;inscription qui a &eacute;t&eacute; lanc&eacute;e en 2014 n&rsquo;a abouti &agrave; r&eacute;inscrire en plus que 962.291, ce qui totalise 5.216.367 &eacute;lecteurs. L&rsquo;INS a estim&eacute; apr&egrave;s le recensement national de 2014 que la population potentiellement &eacute;lectrice se monte &agrave; 7.897.000. Ainsi, nous aurions inscrit quelque 66&nbsp;%.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\tLes &eacute;lections l&eacute;gislatives du 26 octobre 2014 ont permis la participation de seulement 3.578.551, ce qui donne un pourcentage de participation de 68,61&nbsp;%.\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\tQuelles sont les conclusions et les le&ccedil;ons &agrave; tirer de ces chiffres&nbsp;relatifs au niveau de participation&nbsp;?\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n\t\tIl est important de relever que le taux d&rsquo;inscription est encore en-dessous des normes internationalement reconnus qui le fixent &agrave; au moins 80&nbsp;%. L&rsquo;ISIE doit trouver la bonne m&eacute;thode pour rattraper ce retard dans l&rsquo;inscription de la population. La technique idoine reste le porte-&agrave;-porte, similaire &agrave; celui suivi par les agents du recensement national. Apr&egrave;s les deux &eacute;ch&eacute;ances, l&rsquo;ISIE doit s&rsquo;investir pour pr&eacute;parer les communales qui seront probablement organis&eacute;es vers la fin de l&rsquo;ann&eacute;e&nbsp;2015.\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tLa participation par rapport &agrave; l&rsquo;ann&eacute;e&nbsp;2011 a baiss&eacute; de mani&egrave;re absolue (4.306.367 &#8211; 3.578.551) de 727.816 voix. Est-ce que l&rsquo;on peut sur une telle base avancer que seulement 700.000 votants de 2011 qui ont d&eacute;cid&eacute; de ne pas se d&eacute;placer vers l&rsquo;urne le 26&nbsp;octobre dernier&nbsp;? &Eacute;videmment, non.\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tCar il faut prendre en consid&eacute;ration les nouveaux inscrits qui sont au nombre de 962.291. Ainsi, si l&rsquo;on admet que ceux-ci ne pouvaient s&rsquo;inscrire en juillet 2014 pour ne pas aller voter deux mois plus tard, la baisse du nombre de votants par rapport &agrave; l&rsquo;&eacute;ch&eacute;ance de 2011 s&rsquo;&eacute;l&egrave;ve &agrave; (962.291 + 727.816) 1.690.107. On a ainsi perdu en pourcentage d&rsquo;&eacute;lecteurs inscrits 32,40&nbsp;%, donc le tiers. C&rsquo;est l&agrave; un pourcentage important qu&rsquo;il va falloir analyser pour ressortir la ventilation entre les tranches d&rsquo;&acirc;ge de cet abstentionnisme ainsi que des raisons qui ont pouss&eacute; &agrave; ce r&eacute;sultat.\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tCette baisse du tiers des votants est consid&eacute;r&eacute;e par l&rsquo;&eacute;tude compar&eacute;e des transitions d&eacute;mocratiques comme tout &agrave; fait normale. Les citoyens ayant v&eacute;cu cette p&eacute;riode tr&egrave;s mouvement&eacute;e rechignent &agrave; se rendre aux urnes &agrave; l&rsquo;occasion de la premi&egrave;re consultation &eacute;lective.\n\t<\/li>\n<li>\n\t\tPour les prochaines &eacute;ch&eacute;ances, donc les deux tours des pr&eacute;sidentielles, il faut s&rsquo;attendre &agrave; une baisse sensible du taux de participation. Ainsi l&rsquo;on serait &agrave; environ 2.500.000 votants seulement et dans tous les cas moins de trois millions de votants.\n\t<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;\">\n\t&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;\">\n\t&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;\">\n\t<a href=\"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/2014\/11\/20\/quel-poids-reel-des-deux-partis-leaders-au-vu-des-resultats-des-legislatives\/\"><span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><span style=\"color: rgb(22, 22, 22);\">Quel poids r&eacute;el des deux partis leaders au vu des r&eacute;sultats des l&eacute;gislatives ?<\/span><\/span><\/a>\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;\">\n\t<span style=\"font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/2014\/11\/20\/quelle-simulation-des-resultats-des-presidentielles-au-vu-des-resultats-des-legislatives\/\" style=\"color: rgb(87, 41, 44); text-decoration: none;\"><span style=\"color: rgb(22, 22, 22);\">Quelle simulation des r&eacute;sultats des pr&eacute;sidentielles au vu des r&eacute;sultats des l&eacute;gislatives ?&nbsp;<\/span><\/a><\/span>\n<\/p>\n<p>\n\t&nbsp;\n<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">\n\t<b style=\"font-size: 13px; line-height: 20.7999992370605px; text-align: right;\">&nbsp;Chawki Gadd&egrave;s&nbsp;<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Commen&ccedil;ons par rappeler qu&rsquo;en 2011 le corps &eacute;lectoral &eacute;tait &laquo;flottant&raquo;, car &agrave; la suite de la mauvaise et tr&egrave;s &eacute;quivoque r&eacute;daction de l&rsquo;article&nbsp;6 du decret-loi relatif &agrave; l&rsquo;&eacute;lection de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":21308,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-non-classe"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Quelle participation effective du corps \u00e9lectoral aux l\u00e9gislatives ? 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