{"id":21314,"date":"2014-11-20T15:00:47","date_gmt":"2014-11-20T14:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/?p=21314"},"modified":"2015-01-05T14:23:31","modified_gmt":"2015-01-05T13:23:31","slug":"dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/","title":{"rendered":"Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong>Analyse de Chawki GADDES<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 2.0cm;\">\n<p style=\"margin-left: 2.0cm;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><em>L\u2019\u00e9tude ici propos\u00e9e ne pr\u00e9tend pas \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude \u00abscientifique\u00bb. Dans la phase actuelle, elle entend tout au plus dresser les tendances lourdes\u00a0du paysage politique tunisien qui demeure largement en cours de formation. Ce n\u2019est tr\u00e8s probablement qu\u2019\u00e0 partir des r\u00e9sultats des\u00a0prochaines \u00e9lections municipales que l\u2019on sera mieux fix\u00e9 sur le socle \u00e9lectoral r\u00e9el des formations politiques, du moins pour les plus\u00a0importantes d\u2019entre elles. Les projections qui suivent sont donc sch\u00e9matiques au double sens du terme. Elles ne se r\u00e9clament\u00a0pas de la prospective politique et doivent \u00eatre lues comme des marqueurs de tendances qui ne r\u00e9pondent pas aux exigences\u00a0scientifiques et statistiques de rigueur qui ne sont tout simplement pas possibles en l\u2019\u00e9tat actuel des choses.\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 2.0cm;\">\n<p style=\"margin-left: 2.0cm;\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\">D\u00e9but\u00a02014, tout de suite apr\u00e8s l\u2019adoption de la Constitution, devant le mutisme de l\u2019ISIE qui se cachait derri\u00e8re un soi-disant caract\u00e8re politique de la question, les politiques s\u2019oppos\u00e8rent pour la d\u00e9termination de la pr\u00e9s\u00e9ance des \u00e9ch\u00e9ances \u00e9lectorales. Le choix d\u00e9clar\u00e9 comme politique n\u2019\u00e9tait au fond que technique. Quelques mois plus tard, on s\u2019est retrouv\u00e9s devant des probl\u00e8mes logistiques et d\u2019organisation des \u00e9lections et de la mise en place des institutions permanentes de l\u2019\u00c9tat qui d\u00e9coulaient du mauvais choix technique r\u00e9alis\u00e9 et ent\u00e9rin\u00e9 par le dialogue national. Tout le monde enfin s\u2019accorde \u00e0 dire aujourd\u2019hui qu\u2019il aurait mieux valu faire passer les \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles avant les l\u00e9gislatives.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\">Mais la situation \u00e9tant ce qu\u2019elle est et apr\u00e8s avoir obtenu les r\u00e9sultats d\u00e9finitifs des l\u00e9gislatives, est-il possible d\u2019essayer de pr\u00e9voir \u00a0\u00e0 leur lumi\u00e8re ceux des pr\u00e9sidentielles \u00e0 venir\u00a0?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/2014\/11\/20\/quelle-participation-effective-du-corps-electoral-aux-legislatives\/\"><span style=\"color: #161616; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;\">Quelle participation effective du corps \u00e9lectoral aux l\u00e9gislatives ?\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/2014\/11\/20\/quel-poids-reel-des-deux-partis-leaders-au-vu-des-resultats-des-legislatives\/\"><span style=\"color: #161616; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;\">Quel poids r\u00e9el des deux partis leaders au vu des r\u00e9sultats des l\u00e9gislatives ?<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14px;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realites.com.tn\/2014\/11\/20\/quelle-simulation-des-resultats-des-presidentielles-au-vu-des-resultats-des-legislatives\/\"><span style=\"color: #161616; line-height: 18px; text-align: justify;\">Quelle simulation des r\u00e9sultats des pr\u00e9sidentielles au vu des r\u00e9sultats des l\u00e9gislatives ?\u00a0<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Analyse de Chawki GADDES &nbsp; L\u2019\u00e9tude ici propos\u00e9e ne pr\u00e9tend pas \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude \u00abscientifique\u00bb. Dans la phase actuelle, elle entend tout au plus dresser les tendances lourdes\u00a0du paysage politique tunisien&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":23961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,27,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-actualite","category-politique"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ? - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analyse de Chawki GADDES &nbsp; L\u2019\u00e9tude ici propos\u00e9e ne pr\u00e9tend pas \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude \u00abscientifique\u00bb. Dans la phase actuelle, elle entend tout au plus\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ? - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Analyse de Chawki GADDES &nbsp; L\u2019\u00e9tude ici propos\u00e9e ne pr\u00e9tend pas \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude \u00abscientifique\u00bb. Dans la phase actuelle, elle entend tout au plus\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/realites.tn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-11-20T14:00:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2015-01-05T13:23:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"211\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"188\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"La R\u00e9daction\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u00c9crit par\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"La R\u00e9daction\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/\",\"name\":\"Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ? - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-11-20T14:00:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2015-01-05T13:23:31+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/438b71c29a257d955d96d8aef42336e7\"},\"description\":\"Analyse de Chawki GADDES &nbsp; L\u2019\u00e9tude ici propos\u00e9e ne pr\u00e9tend pas \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude \u00abscientifique\u00bb. Dans la phase actuelle, elle entend tout au plus\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg\",\"width\":211,\"height\":188},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/\",\"name\":\"R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine\",\"description\":\"Actualit\u00e9s de la Tunisie\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/438b71c29a257d955d96d8aef42336e7\",\"name\":\"La R\u00e9daction\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fbe9ab25fcc82b6e660ad5648f91eadb?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fbe9ab25fcc82b6e660ad5648f91eadb?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"La R\u00e9daction\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/author\/realites5201\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ? - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine","description":"Analyse de Chawki GADDES &nbsp; L\u2019\u00e9tude ici propos\u00e9e ne pr\u00e9tend pas \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude \u00abscientifique\u00bb. Dans la phase actuelle, elle entend tout au plus","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":"Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ? - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine","og_description":"Analyse de Chawki GADDES &nbsp; L\u2019\u00e9tude ici propos\u00e9e ne pr\u00e9tend pas \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude \u00abscientifique\u00bb. Dans la phase actuelle, elle entend tout au plus","og_url":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/","og_site_name":"R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/realites.tn\/","article_published_time":"2014-11-20T14:00:47+00:00","article_modified_time":"2015-01-05T13:23:31+00:00","og_image":[{"width":211,"height":188,"url":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"La R\u00e9daction","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"\u00c9crit par":"La R\u00e9daction","Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/","url":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/","name":"Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ? - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg","datePublished":"2014-11-20T14:00:47+00:00","dateModified":"2015-01-05T13:23:31+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/438b71c29a257d955d96d8aef42336e7"},"description":"Analyse de Chawki GADDES &nbsp; L\u2019\u00e9tude ici propos\u00e9e ne pr\u00e9tend pas \u00e0 l\u2019exactitude \u00abscientifique\u00bb. Dans la phase actuelle, elle entend tout au plus","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg","width":211,"height":188},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/dossier-quels-eclairages-pour-la-presidentielle\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Dossier: Quels \u00e9clairages pour la pr\u00e9sidentielle ?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#website","url":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/","name":"R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine","description":"Actualit\u00e9s de la Tunisie","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/438b71c29a257d955d96d8aef42336e7","name":"La R\u00e9daction","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fbe9ab25fcc82b6e660ad5648f91eadb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/fbe9ab25fcc82b6e660ad5648f91eadb?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"La R\u00e9daction"},"url":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/author\/realites5201\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/t\u00e9l\u00e9chargement-810.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"views":22,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/60"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21314\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}