{"id":319999,"date":"2024-05-05T10:36:25","date_gmt":"2024-05-05T09:36:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/?p=319999"},"modified":"2024-05-05T10:36:25","modified_gmt":"2024-05-05T09:36:25","slug":"a-court-terme-la-croissance-restera-faible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/a-court-terme-la-croissance-restera-faible\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c0 court terme, la croissance restera faible"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>Par Amine Ben Gamra*<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>Les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques de la succession de crises de ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es seront plus visibles en 2024.<br \/>\nLes perturbations dans les voies navigables vitales comme la mer Rouge, une nouvelle source de retards et de pressions inflationnistes, rappellent en temps r\u00e9el les risques que posent les probl\u00e8mes de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et la crise climatique pour le commerce mondial et la production.<br \/>\nNe pr\u00e9tendons pas que tout cela serait facile. Si nous pensions que le monde semblait difficile en mai 2022, alors que nous sortions lentement de la pand\u00e9mie et que la guerre en Ukraine avait mis fin \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 alimentaire et \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, la situation est encore plus difficile aujourd\u2019hui.<br \/>\nIl faut se pencher sur l\u2019incertitude et l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 partout. Les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques se sont aggrav\u00e9es. Le conflit s\u2019est propag\u00e9, comme nous le voyons au Moyen-Orient et loin des manchettes dans certaines parties de l\u2019Afrique et du monde arabe.<br \/>\nDans un climat comme celui-ci, la croissance sera lente. Le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international (FMI) ne s\u2019attend pas \u00e0 ce que l\u2019inflation revienne \u00e0 l\u2019objectif de la plupart des banques centrales avant 2025, ce qui augure de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour encore longtemps, surtout si les prix du p\u00e9trole sont \u00e0 nouveau tendus dans un contexte d\u2019incertitude g\u00e9opolitique.<br \/>\nLa pr\u00e9vision de croissance du FMI pour 2024 est de 2,9%, soit un chiffre sensiblement identique \u00e0 l\u2019estimation pour 2023 et inf\u00e9rieur aux taux de croissance d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie.<br \/>\n\u200bAlors que le monde est \u00e0 mi-parcours de ce qui devait \u00eatre une d\u00e9cennie d\u00e9cisive pour le d\u00e9veloppement, son \u00e9conomie devrait enregistrer un triste record d\u2019ici fin 2024, la plus faible croissance du PIB sur une demi-d\u00e9cennie depuis 30\u00a0ans, ainsi que le r\u00e9v\u00e8lent les derni\u00e8res\u00a0Perspectives \u00e9conomiques mondiales\u00a0publi\u00e9es par la Banque mondiale.<br \/>\nLa croissance mondiale devrait ralentir pour la troisi\u00e8me ann\u00e9e cons\u00e9cutive, passant de 2,6% l\u2019an dernier \u00e0 2,4% en 2024, soit pr\u00e8s de trois quarts de point de pourcentage en dessous de la moyenne des ann\u00e9es\u00a02010.<br \/>\n\u00c0 la fin de 2024, les habitants d\u2019environ 40% des pays \u00e0 faible revenu seront toujours plus pauvres qu\u2019ils ne l\u2019\u00e9taient \u00e0 la veille de la pand\u00e9mie de la Covid en 2019.<br \/>\nR\u00e9sultat\u00a0: \u00e0\u00a0court terme, la croissance restera faible et laissera de nombreux pays\u2014\u00a0en particulier les plus pauvres\u00a0\u2014 en butte \u00e0 des niveaux de dette paralysants et avec pr\u00e8s d\u2019une personne sur trois en situation de pr\u00e9carit\u00e9 alimentaire. Un tel sc\u00e9nario entraverait les progr\u00e8s accomplis dans la r\u00e9alisation de nombreuses priorit\u00e9s mondiales. Cependant, il est encore possible d\u2019inverser la tendance.<br \/>\nPour ce faire, il faut une trajectoire claire pour acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer l\u2019investissement et renforcer les politiques budg\u00e9taires.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong><em>*Expert-comptable<br \/>\n<\/em><\/strong><strong><em>Commissaire aux comptes<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Par Amine Ben Gamra* \u00a0Les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques de la succession de crises de ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es seront plus visibles en 2024. Les perturbations dans les voies navigables vitales comme la&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":294252,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-319999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinions"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u00c0 court terme, la croissance restera faible - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Par Amine Ben Gamra* \u00a0Les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9conomiques de la succession de crises de ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es seront plus visibles en 2024. 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