{"id":383509,"date":"2026-03-08T22:21:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T21:21:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/?p=383509"},"modified":"2026-03-08T22:23:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T21:23:08","slug":"guerre-contre-liran-aram-belhaj-previent-dun-choc-energetique-imminent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/guerre-contre-liran-aram-belhaj-previent-dun-choc-energetique-imminent\/","title":{"rendered":"Guerre contre l’Iran : Aram Belhaj pr\u00e9vient d’un choc \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique imminent"},"content":{"rendered":"

En r\u00e9action \u00e0 l\u2019escalade des tensions au Moyen-Orient suite \u00e0 l’attaque am\u00e9ricaine contre l’Iran, l\u2019expert en \u00e9conomie Aram Belhaj a mis en garde contre un sc\u00e9nario pr\u00e9occupant marqu\u00e9 par une forte hausse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale.
\nSelon lui, le monde se rapproche progressivement d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario inqui\u00e9tant, notamment face \u00e0 l\u2019augmentation rapide des prix internationaux du p\u00e9trole. Les indicateurs observ\u00e9s ces derniers jours montrent une tendance haussi\u00e8re soutenue, ce qui renforce les pr\u00e9visions de plusieurs analyses internationales \u00e9voquant la possibilit\u00e9 que le prix du Brent atteigne 150 dollars le baril dans les prochains jours, si les tensions au Moyen-Orient continuent de s\u2019intensifier.
\nDans ce contexte, Aram Belhaj souligne que la Tunisie pourrait subir plusieurs r\u00e9percussions \u00e9conomiques importantes. L\u2019une des premi\u00e8res cons\u00e9quences serait une hausse du budget consacr\u00e9 aux subventions \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, ce qui risquerait d\u2019alourdir davantage le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n

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Screenshot<\/p><\/div>\n

Par ailleurs, une augmentation durable des prix du p\u00e9trole sur les march\u00e9s internationaux pourrait conduire \u00e0 une hausse des prix des carburants sur le march\u00e9 local, entra\u00eenant ainsi une pression inflationniste suppl\u00e9mentaire sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie et sur le pouvoir d\u2019achat des citoyens.
\nL\u2019augmentation des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie pourrait \u00e9galement provoquer une hausse de la facture des importations \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques du pays. Une telle situation risquerait d\u2019accentuer le d\u00e9ficit \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique de la Tunisie et de contribuer \u00e0 l\u2019aggravation de l\u2019endettement, dans un contexte \u00e9conomique d\u00e9j\u00e0 fragile.
\nL\u2019expert estime ainsi que la poursuite de l\u2019escalade au Moyen-Orient pourrait avoir des r\u00e9percussions directes et rapides sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie tunisienne, appelant \u00e0 une vigilance accrue face aux \u00e9volutions des march\u00e9s \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques internationaux.
\nPour rappel, plusieurs experts \u00e9conomiques ont \u00e9galement exprim\u00e9 leur inqui\u00e9tude face \u00e0 cette escalade, notamment apr\u00e8s la fermeture du d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz, passage strat\u00e9gique pour le transit mondial du p\u00e9trole.
\nParmi eux, l\u2019\u00e9conomiste Ridha Chkoundali a \u00e9voqu\u00e9 trois sc\u00e9narios possibles<\/a>, en fonction de l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation g\u00e9opolitique et de la dur\u00e9e de la perturbation du trafic maritime dans cette zone cl\u00e9 pour l\u2019approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique mondial. Selon lui, ces d\u00e9veloppements pourraient avoir des r\u00e9percussions directes sur les march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers internationaux, mais aussi sur les \u00e9conomies fortement d\u00e9pendantes des importations d\u2019\u00e9nergie, dont la Tunisie.
\nL\u2019expert estime que l\u2019ampleur de l\u2019impact d\u00e9pendra principalement de la dur\u00e9e de la crise et du niveau de perturbation des flux p\u00e9troliers, ce qui pourrait se traduire par une hausse marqu\u00e9e des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et une pression accrue sur les \u00e9quilibres \u00e9conomiques des pays importateurs appelant \u00e0 la mise en place d’une cellule de crise<\/a> pour g\u00e9rer les risques.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En r\u00e9action \u00e0 l\u2019escalade des tensions au Moyen-Orient suite \u00e0 l’attaque am\u00e9ricaine contre l’Iran, l\u2019expert en \u00e9conomie Aram Belhaj a mis en garde contre un sc\u00e9nario pr\u00e9occupant marqu\u00e9 par une…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":144,"featured_media":383511,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,6],"tags":[3649,5273,3742,1380,3736],"class_list":["post-383509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-economie","tag-aram-belhaj","tag-guerre","tag-iran","tag-petrole","tag-realites-online"],"yoast_head":"\nGuerre contre l'Iran : Aram Belhaj pr\u00e9vient d'un choc \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique imminent - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"En r\u00e9action \u00e0 l\u2019escalade des tensions au Moyen-Orient suite \u00e0 l'attaque am\u00e9ricaine contre l'Iran, l\u2019expert en \u00e9conomie Aram Belhaj a mis en garde contre\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/guerre-contre-liran-aram-belhaj-previent-dun-choc-energetique-imminent\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Guerre contre l'Iran : Aram Belhaj pr\u00e9vient d'un choc \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique imminent - 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