{"id":398605,"date":"2026-11-05T13:35:10","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T12:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/?p=398605"},"modified":"2026-11-05T13:35:27","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T12:35:27","slug":"olivier-kempf-leurope-cumule-trois-fragilites","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/olivier-kempf-leurope-cumule-trois-fragilites\/","title":{"rendered":"Olivier Kempf : \u00ab L\u2019Europe cumule trois fragilit\u00e9s \u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Au 28e Forum international de R\u00e9alit\u00e9s, Olivier Kempf, docteur en sciences politiques, a choisi de ne pas m\u00e9nager son auditoire en dressant un tableau sombre de la situation \u00e9conomique de l\u2019Europe. \u00ab Tout va mal, et puis tout n\u2019est pas perdu \u00bb, a-t-il pr\u00e9venu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Premier constat : les chocs g\u00e9o\u00e9conomiques ne frappent pas la seule M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e, mais l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale. La guerre d\u2019Ukraine, d\u2019abord, a eu un effet r\u00e9cessif en privant l\u2019Europe d\u2019une \u00e9nergie russe bon march\u00e9. \u00ab Ne nous y trompons pas : elle a tellement affect\u00e9 l\u2019industrie allemande \u00bb, et par ricochet la croissance du continent. Cette ann\u00e9e, la guerre d\u2019Iran a ajout\u00e9 ses propres perturbations sur les march\u00e9s de l\u2019\u00e9nergie : le baril oscille d\u00e9sormais entre 90 et 95 dollars, avec des tensions comparables sur le gaz. L\u2019inflation repart, la croissance s\u2019\u00e9tiole. La France est proche de la stagnation, quand les \u00c9tats-Unis tablent sur 2,4 % \u00e0 3 %. Les pr\u00e9visions ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9es \u00e0 la baisse de 0,5 \u00e0 2 points selon les sc\u00e9narios. Citant le FMI, l\u2019orateur a averti que la croissance mondiale, proche de 4 % il y a peu, pourrait tomber \u00e0 2,5 % avec un baril \u00e0 100 dollars. Un ralentissement qui touche autant les march\u00e9s des Europ\u00e9ens que ceux du Maghreb et de l\u2019Afrique.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sur le long terme, le diagnostic n\u2019est gu\u00e8re plus rassurant. Depuis la crise de 2008, l\u2019Europe s\u2019est install\u00e9e dans l\u2019endettement : rachats massifs de dettes par la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne, taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat tr\u00e8s bas, puis crise du Covid et m\u00e9canismes d\u2019endettement commun. Les crit\u00e8res de Maastricht, fondateurs de l\u2019euro, paraissent bien loin. La dette moyenne de la zone euro avoisine 89 % du PIB, et les pays riverains de la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e sont plus expos\u00e9s encore : environ 120 % pour la France, 140 % pour la Gr\u00e8ce et l\u2019Italie, 100 % pour l\u2019Espagne. Si les d\u00e9ficits se r\u00e9sorbent en Italie et en Espagne, Paris peine \u00e0 passer sous la barre des 5 %. Ces finances publiques d\u00e9grad\u00e9es, a-t-il soulign\u00e9, p\u00e8sent sur \u00ab les marges de man\u0153uvre europ\u00e9ennes \u00bb, y compris pour le pacte pour la M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dernier facteur, et non le moindre : l\u2019essor industriel de la Chine, qui a profond\u00e9ment chang\u00e9 la donne en cinq \u00e0 dix ans. Olivier Kempf est revenu sur le pari des ann\u00e9es 2000, lorsque l\u2019Europe a ouvert l\u2019OMC \u00e0 P\u00e9kin : \u00ab On s\u2019est dit : on leur abandonne le travail et on garde le capital. \u00bb Le pari n\u2019a pas tenu. L\u2019industrie ne p\u00e8se plus qu\u2019une dizaine de points du PIB fran\u00e7ais, loin derri\u00e8re l\u2019Allemagne. La Tunisie, dont le mod\u00e8le reposait sur une main-d\u2019\u0153uvre de proximit\u00e9 pour le march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en, affronte le m\u00eame d\u00e9fi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">L\u2019intervenant a par ailleurs refus\u00e9 de partager \u00ab l\u2019optimisme \u00bb ou \u00ab les d\u00e9clarations de bonnes intentions \u00bb. Son r\u00e9sum\u00e9 tient en trois mots : une fragilit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne \u00ab \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00bb, \u00ab financi\u00e8re \u00bb et \u00ab industrielle \u00bb, qui limite s\u00e9rieusement les marges de man\u0153uvre du continent.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Au 28e Forum international de R\u00e9alit\u00e9s, Olivier Kempf, docteur en sciences politiques, a choisi de ne pas m\u00e9nager son auditoire en dressant un tableau sombre de la situation \u00e9conomique de&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":398606,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,27],"tags":[3974,6956,12149,1120],"class_list":["post-398605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-actualite","tag-europe","tag-forum-international-de-realites","tag-pacte-pour-la-mediterranee","tag-tunisie"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Olivier Kempf : \u00ab L\u2019Europe cumule trois fragilit\u00e9s \u00bb - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Au 28e Forum international de R\u00e9alit\u00e9s, Olivier Kempf, docteur en sciences politiques, a choisi de ne pas m\u00e9nager son auditoire en dressant un tableau\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/olivier-kempf-leurope-cumule-trois-fragilites\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Olivier Kempf : \u00ab L\u2019Europe cumule trois fragilit\u00e9s \u00bb - R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Au 28e Forum international de R\u00e9alit\u00e9s, Olivier Kempf, docteur en sciences politiques, a choisi de ne pas m\u00e9nager son auditoire en dressant un tableau\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/olivier-kempf-leurope-cumule-trois-fragilites\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"R\u00e9alit\u00e9s Magazine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/realites.tn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-11-05T12:35:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-11-05T12:35:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/realites.com.tn\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/kempf.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1066\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"M. 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